Keys to a Broncos Victory Against the Chiefs

By Jonathan Peter on December 3, 2021

On Sunday Night, at Arrowhead Stadium, the Denver Broncos (6-5) will play their most important game in years as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs (7-4). Despite the up and down season, Denver finds themselves with a golden opportunity to obtain first place in the division with a win against the fierce division rival.

The Broncos have been widely inconsistent this season, which causes many fans to believe that winning on Sunday night is highly unlikely. Denver’s erratic play is not the only factor raising doubt in fans’ minds. The Broncos have lost their last 11 straight matchups against the Chiefs, along with having a record of 3-19 when playing in Arrowhead during the month of December. On top of that, Kansas City currently holds the second highest odds to win the Super Bowl, according to Caesars Sportsbook.

Daunting, right? The odds seem to be stacked against the Denver Broncos. I don’t believe so. Here’s how the Broncos can shock NFL fans around the world during the freshly flexed Primetime game.

(All of my statistical references are thanks to Pro Football Reference.)

On offensive, Denver is going up against the 12th ranked Chiefs defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo. Kansas City likes to blitz a decent amount as they have a 30.6% blitz percentage on the season and have generated QB pressures on 27.3% of dropbacks against them. The Broncos should be able to combat this with the return of Garett Bolles and Bobby Massie at both tackle positions. Additionally, Denver can manipulate the battle in the trenches by running the football effectively. The Chiefs give up 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. For reference, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon averaged 4.4 yards per attempt last week against LA. An effective game plan for the Broncos would be to replicate something similar to their 31 rushing attempts last week. This would allow Denver to win the time of possession battle, as well as keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field.

The Broncos should not be afraid of throwing the ball on Sunday Night either. The Chiefs secondary is weak, posting a 66.9% completion percentage against them. Kansas City has given up 1,515 yards after the catch this season, which is fifth most in the NFL. It’s time for Pat Shurmur to scheme plays to get the ball into the hands of his offensive weapons against a below average defense. It’s time for Jerry Juedy, Noah Fant, and Albert Okwuegbunam to get the ball in space.

It’s simple for Vic Fangio this week. If he wants to continue to be head coach of the Denver Broncos for the upcoming season, he needs to put together one his best game plans for Sunday night’s game. Fangio deserves credit for how the defense rattled Justin Herbet and he needs to do the same with Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City has turned the ball over 22 times this season, second worst in the league only trailing the New York Jets. They do not look as sharp as they have in past seasons, whether its balls going through their hands in the passing game or fumbling the ball on running downs. For instance, Travis Kelce has a drop percentage of 9.3%, which is incredibly high for player who is a major component of their offense. Mahomes has a bad throw percentage of 19.4% and an interception percentage of 2.4% with 11 picks on the year. Denver’s secondary has been stellar this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to only complete 58.6% of their passes. The Broncos need to be ready to pounce on opportunities for turnovers because there will be numerous opportunities against the Chiefs offense. I predict the Denver defense getting one pick-six in the contest.

The speed and athleticism of Kenny Young and Barron Browning gives Denver a chance at limiting big plays from Kelce, who has hurt them many times over the past few seasons. Coach Fangio also stated they may throw Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons in coverage of Kelce. Denver cannot forget about the speed of Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle.

Denver has to be ready to defend the run-pass option plays the Chiefs offense presents. Neither of the Chiefs running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire (fantasy bust) or Darell Williams have been super impactful, and Denver’s D needs to continue this trend. The Broncos weakness in run defense cannot be exposed during this game. If Denver’s front four generates pressure throughout the game, they can neutralize the explosive elements of the KC offense and force turnovers.

The final important factor to the Sunday night’s game is going to be the battle on third down. According to ESPN, the Chiefs convert 51.52% of third downs on offense and give up 39.68% of third downs on defense. The Broncos struggle in this area, converting 37.68% on offense and give up 44.14% on defense. Denver needs to flip the script on this element of the game. They need to convert on third down to extend drives, while stopping Kansas City to get them off the field. It’s easier said than done, especially for the Broncos.

My final score prediction is 31-21, Broncos. The Broncos offense needs to start the game off by getting the lead, forcing the Chiefs to play from behind. Denver needs to be aggressive, yet cautious, not abandoning the run game quickly if they struggle or trail early on in the game. The Broncos defense needs to limit the number of Kansas City big plays and force Patrick Mahomes to make some poor decisions.

Let’s be optimistic Broncos Country. Sunday night should be a fun one.