Written by Jonathan Peter
On Saturday evening, the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors kick off their best-of-7 game playoff series. The series opens in San Francisco at the newly-constructed Chase Center for Games 1 and 2, before coming to Denver for Games 3 and 4. The Nuggets come in as heavy underdogs to win this series and not many folks are giving them a chance to come away as winners.
The doubts about the Nuggets are fair. With no Michael Porter Jr. or Jamal Murray (maybe Jamal returns?? Who knows?), Denver displays an obvious lack of offensive fire power compared to the championship grizzled Warriors. It also appears Steph Curry will be set to return from his left foot injury in time for Saturday nights game. With very few folks giving them a shot, it’s time for the Nuggets to embody their postseason motto by being the relentless team which they can be.
The Backcourt: Advantage Golden State
Both teams have apparent advantages over the other. Let’s start with the backcourt, where the Warriors are much better. Golden State’s backcourt, consisting of the Splash Brothers Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole, keep defenses up at night. Fans know about the heaters which Steph and Klay have had in the past, so many have been calling Jordan Poole an “X-factor” in this series which is preposterous to me. He is a damn good player and if the Nuggets do not plan to defend him the same way they defend Curry and Thompson, this series will be over before we can blink. The Splash Bros. shoot a combined 37.6% from the perimeter and that includes all of the ridiculous shots they fire up. Anytime one of the Brothers hits a three, you can feel the momentum of the game change, and their opponents are left helpless.
The Nuggets have to do their best at trying to contain these fellows. Austin Rivers is going to see plenty of run during this series because he has been Denver’s best perimeter defender this season. Rivers opponents’ shoot 36.1% when he is the primary defender. This is not a great percentage, but you hope his physicality is able to bother whoever he is matched up with. Rivers cannot defend everyone on the perimeter, so it is imperative that Monte Morris, Will Barton, Bones Hyland, and Bryn Forbes (if he gets any playing time), do their best on the defensive end as well. By doing their best, I mean that they can’t afford to take any possessions off. This series is going to be so tight that one defensive lapse can cost you a game, maybe even a series. The Nuggets guards need to stay sharp because their frontcourt should carry the load for the team on offense.
Offensively, I think the Nuggets guards need to be cautiously aggressive. With Nikola Jokic being the fulcrum of everything this Nuggets team does, Golden State will be paying the most attention to him. This will open up ample opportunities for the Nuggets perimeter players to have open shots and driving lanes to get to the basket. Of course, the best course of action is to run everything through the back-to-back MVP, but when the time comes, the Nuggets backcourt needs to be ready to strike.
The Frontcourt: Advantage Denver
Just like Golden State’s obvious advantage with their backcourt, Denver has the supreme frontcourt. Led by Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jeff Green, I think the Nuggets will absolutely obliterate the Warriors “big men” (none are taller than 6’9″). Self-proclaimed “Greatest Defender of all-time” Draymond Green provides Golden State with their best defense against the reigning MVP and crew, but I do not think that is enough to slow down Denver’s bigs. Say Green is defending Jokic in one-on-one situations, I would say that 80% of the time Jokic is getting a bucket. If Golden State goes with veteran Kevon Looney on Jokic, that is also money in the bank for the Nuggets. I’m certain that Golden State will send plenty of double teams at Joker, which opens up passing lanes for Denver’s forwards to cut for, which results in more easy points for Denver.
Jeff Green and Aaron Gordon are my “X-Factors” for this series. Even though both players are starters, I have feeling that wins and losses in this series are going to be dependent on how these two forwards play. Green and Gordon need to impose their physicality against this Warriors frontcourt, who are much smaller individuals. During the regular season series, Gordon and Green combined to shoot 42% from the field against the Warriors. Improving that percentage up a few points can really change the dynamic in this series. Green and Gordon need to be viable second options next to Jokic because he will be looking for them. On the offensive and defensive glass, the two forwards have to be monsters, looking to snag every board. Again, second-chance points can be a way for Denver to win or lose this series.
The Bench: No Advantage
Both the Warriors and the Nuggets have decent bench players. There is a high likelihood that both coaches have a bench player or two in their closing units during games in this series. I’ve already mentioned Bones and Austin Rivers for the Nuggets as be key role guys, but I think Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga can be the same level of difference maker for the Warriors. It’s crazy how two rookies, Hyland and Kuminga can have a huge swing in this series. However, it is difficult to measure the impact bench players can have in this series. They can either tip their team closer to winning or losing games. Both teams should hope that their bench units, or heavily staggered bench units can essentially break even during this series.
A Couple Other Considerations
I think Nikola Jokic will have the best playoff series of his career. I think he will average 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists per game this series. He will be shouldering the load for the Nuggets, just like he has all season. The question is who steps up with him? I think it will be someone different every night.
How will the Nuggets respond to the quick runs that Golden State notoriously goes on throughout the series? Are they going to start playing sporadically on offense, or will they show resolve and maturity. I am also curious to see how Coach Malone reacts to momentum shifts during games.
This is the first time in three years that the Warriors have made the playoffs. They did have one of the most dominant runs in NBA history prior to their short postseason drought. However, this team is much different than the prior ones where they won championships. This has to have some effect on the series and I think it is a good thing for Denver. After all, this is the Nuggets’ fourth consecutive playoff appearance and they can use the chemistry to their advantage.
I am curious to see how Denver imposes themself this series. I would like to see them be the more physical team in this series. Sometimes when teams are not as talented or are undermanned, this strategy can payoff in quantifiable dividends.
My Pick: Denver in 7
Personally, I believe there is a revolution happening in the NBA. There are new stars who are snatching the grips of the league away from older ones. Teams that were once dominate, are now finding themselves in dogfights with younger, hungrier squads. Denver has an opportunity to take down the once mighty Warriors, and I think they will rise to the occasion.
Denver has had to claw their way to wins throughout the regular season and it would not surprise me to see them shock the world. I can’t imagine Denver going out as sorry as they did against Phoenix in last year’s second round series. The Nuggets play the best when no one gives them a shot and I do not expect them to fold. Let’s hope for a competitive and fun series and that the Nuggets get revenge for their 2013 playoff loss.
Stats Tell Stories 